Centre News

Centre for Decision Research members presenting at the 26th Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making Conference (SPUDM26)

18 August 2017

A number of CDR members are presenting at SPUDM26.

Chris Riley wins prize for best paper at the 2017 White Rose Doctoral Conference

1 June 2017

Chris Riley, a PhD student working with Barbara Summers and Darren Duxbury, has won the prize for best paper at the 2017 White Rose Doctoral Conference for his paper “Capital Gains Overhang with a Dynamic Reference Point”. This paper examines how changes in investor reference points, caused by previous share price movements, can influence the amount of under or overvaluation in share prices.

In other CDR news, Andrea Taylor and colleagues Yim Ling Siu, Suraje Dessai and Lindsay Lee at the School of Earth and Environment have been awarded a contract to address challenges related to the treatment of uncertainty in climate services in China. Combining expertise in risk communication, environmental risk assessment, climate risk management, and statistical treatments of uncertainty in climate models, the team will work with programme partners in the Met Office and Chinese Meteorological Administration to better understand and address the needs of Chinese climate service users for information about uncertainty in climate predictions, and produce evidence based recommendations for the treatment and communication of uncertainty for climate service providers.

Wandi Bruine de Bruin and Mirta Galesic presented a paper at the American Association for Public Opinion Resarch (AAPOR) in New Orleans LA (US), entitled "Perceptions of Social Circles Shape and Reflect Voting Intentions: A Longitudinal Analysis"

Wandi was also an invited participant at the annual meeting of Carnegie Mellon University's Centre for Climate and Energy Decision Making in Pittsburgh PA (US). Wandi is a Co-I on the centre's funding from the US National Science Foundation.

Baruch Fischhoff (Carnegie Mellon University), who is visiting professor at the Centre for Decision Research, was elected into the US National Academy of Sciences, which is one of the highest honours a scientist can achieve and recognizes distinguished and continuing achievements in original research.

CDR members' recent highlights

5 May 2017

Awards

Richard Hodgett and Alan Pearman, in collaboration with a number of industrial partners including Britest Ltd, INEOS, A.Spire, Iris and CRIT-Research, have been awarded with €499,369 to fund a 2-year project titled “Setting the framework for the enhanced impact of SPIRE projects”. The project will increase the industrial uptake of project findings in Sustainable Process Industry through Resource and Energy Efficiency (SPIRE) EU projects.

Papers

Wandi Bruine de Bruin had a paper accepted in Medical Decision Making (impact factor 3.2), entitled "Effects of anti- vs. pro-vaccine narratives on responses by recipients varying in numeracy: A cross-sectional survey-based experiment." (with Dr. Annika Wallin from Lund University, Dr. Andrew Parker from the RAND Corporation, Prof. JoNell Strough from the University of West Virginia, and Dr. Janel Hanmer from the University of Pittsburgh)

Sajid Siraj has had a paper accepted for publication in EJOR (ABS-4) with the following title: “Spare parts classification in industrial manufacturing using the dominance-based rough set approach”.

Invited talks

Yasmina Okan gave an invited talk entitled “Improving communications about cervical cancer screening using graphs” at the Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London.

Wandi Bruine de Bruin gave an invited presentation at Dubrovnik International University (Croatia) entitled "A behavioural decision research approach to developing effective communications".

Media coverage

Astrid Kause has written for the Imperfect Cognitions blog: http://imperfectcognitions.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/simple-rules-to-cope-with-changing.html

A news story has featured on the Carnegie Mellon University website about Wandi Bruine de Bruin’s paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with Baruch Fischhoff: http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2017/april/understanding-decisions.html

Recent research activity

29 March 2017

Publications

Richard Hodgett has had his paper - “Supporting the multi-criteria decision aiding process: R and the MCDA package” – accepted for publication in EURO Journal on Decision Processes

Wandi Bruine de Bruin co-authored a chapter entitled "Individual differences in decision-making competence in different age groups (with Andrew Parker at RAND), to be published in M.E. Toplak, & J. Weller (Eds.) Individual Differences in Judgement and Decision Making: A Developmental Perspective. New York, NY: Routledge.

Knowledge Transfer Partnership

Richard Hodgett, Barbara Summers and Sajid Siraj have secured funding (£178,263) for a Knowledge Transfer Partnership in collaboration with All Around the World Ltd and Universal Music. The aim of the project is to develop a system utilising machine learning, artificial intelligence and decision science methodologies to support and enhance the identification of new musical talent and maximise the profitability of the talent identification process.

Media Coverage

John Maule features in two videos on The Economist Intelligence Unit. The first discusses the impact of stress on effective decision making, and why it forces us to rely on intuitive and bias prone thinking.

In the second video he discusses stress in the context of the record-breaking long-distance sailor Hans Bouscholte.

Baruch Fischhoff Tribute

A video is now available of the tribute for Baruch Fischhoff organised by Wandi Bruine de Bruin (chair), Maya Bar-Hillel, Ann Bostrom, and Andrew Parker at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference in Boston.

The Centre for Decision Research welcomes Astrid Kause to the team

21 February 2017

Astrid Kause has recently joined Leeds University Business School, the Centre for Decision Research, and the Priestley Centre for Climate as a new postdoc working on climate change communications. She is working in collaboration with Professor Wandi Bruine de Bruin (the Business School), Professor Suraje Dessai (School of Earth and Environment), and Dr Andrea Taylor (both the Business School and School of Earth and Environment).

Her research will combine insights from behavioural decision research and environmental science to understand and inform people's decisions about climate change. For example, she is presently developing a project that aims to help consumers to make more climate-friendly decisions about food. Currently, many consumers are motivated to behave more ‘green’ and to even spend more money, for example on food. They lack however simple and concrete tools to help them make more climate-friendly choices. Although climate experts have various recommendations for making climate-friendly food choices, it remains unclear which are the most effective and easiest for consumers to implement.

Astrid received her PhD from the University of Konstanz in Germany, and has also worked at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development (Germany) and the Santa Fe Institute (US).

CDR Co-Director Wandi Bruine de Bruin comments: “Astrid is an expert in developing simple strategies (or rules of thumb) that promote 'fast and frugal' decision making. Indeed, good decision making does not have to be time-consuming or complex, if you apply simple strategies. Astrid's research will help motivate 'green' consumers to be more climate-friendly without complicating their choices.”

Astrid comments: “In the Centre for Decision Research and the Priestly Centre I have found the perfect place to do my research – this environment is ideal for pursuing my overall research goal to help individuals make better informed decisions in the face of climate change. This includes transparent communications of climate evidence and developing a very simple toolbox with strategies helping us to substantially lower our carbon footprints. I am sure that my fascinating and exciting first days in Leeds are only the beginning of what will be a long and productive journey in a friendly, welcoming and very supportive team of colleagues.”

Member updates

16 February 2017

Papers

Barbara Summers has had the following paper accepted for publication: Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara (in press), On Perceptions of Financial Volatility in Price Sequences, European Journal of Finance.

Gulbanu Kaptan has had the following two papers accepted:

  • Kaptan G., Fischer A.R.H., & Frewer L.J. Extrapolating understanding of food risk perceptions to emerging food safety cases. Journal of Risk Research.
  • Frewer L.J, Coles D, Dijkstra A.M., Kuznesof S., Kendall H., & Kaptan G. Synthetic biology applied in the agrifood sector: societal priorities and pitfalls. APSTRACT.

Wandi Bruine de Bruin had a paper accepted in the Journal of Economic Psychology, entitled "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise." (with Wilbert van der Klaauw at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Maarten van Rooij and Federica Teppa at the Dutch Central Bank, and Klaas de Vos at Centerdata)

She also had a paper accepted by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, entitled "Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists". PNAS has an impact factor of 9.4 and ranks as the fourth journal in the world in the multidisiplinary science category of Incites Journal Citation Reports, after Nature, Science, and Nature Communications. The paper was co-authored with Baruch Fischhoff from Carnegie Mellon University.

Reports

Wandi Bruine de Bruin co-authored the new report released by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on the topic of "Communicating Science Effectively: A Research Agenda." The report highlights the complexity of effectively communicating about science, especially when dealing with contentious issues, and proposes a research agenda to help science communicators and researchers identify effective methods. (http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=23674&_ga=1.222863259.1213463510.147489301) A presentation of the report, as given at the launch event in Washington DC on 10 January 2017, can be downloaded from http://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_176564.pdf

Research Grants Awarded

Gulbanu Kaptan received a grant from the German Research Foundation as a collaborator, with PI and Co-I’s from the Universities of Pennsylvania (USA) and Konstanz (Germany), and collaborators from the Universities in Brazil, Ghana India, Japan, France, and Mexico to work on a cross-cultural project on Why People eat in a Traditional or Modern Way (€286,180).

EU PROJECT ON IMPROVING EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS: Dr Natalie van der Wal received a 2-year EU Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (worth ~200k in euros) to work with Prof. Wandi Bruine de Bruin in the Centre for Decision Research and the Leeds University Business School. Dr. van der Wal is currently an Assistant Professor in Computer Science at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. The project will aim to improve speed and survival in emergency evacuations, through the combined insights from agent-based computer modeling, risk communication/decision research, and an advisory board of emergency responders.

Conferences

Wandi gave a presentation at the Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging, and Retirement (NETSPAR) International Pension Workshop, Leiden, the Netherlands entitled "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise." (with Wilbert van der Klaauw at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Maarten van Rooij and Federica Teppa at the Dutch Central Bank, and Klaas de Vos at Centerdata)

Other

Wandi gave an invited presentation on ageing and decision-making competence at the University of Huddersfield's Department of Psychology.

Gulbanu Kaptan was an invited speaker at the ESRC funded research seminar series on Food Options Opinions and Decisions (FOOD) that was held in Banbury on 17th January 2017. 

EU Project on Improving Emergency Evacuations

8 February 2017

Dr Natalie van der Wal has received a two-year EU Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (worth ~200k in euros) to work with Professor Wandi Bruine de Bruin in the Centre for Decision Research and Leeds University Business School.

Dr van der Wal is currently an Assistant Professor in Computer Science at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. The project will aim to improve speed and survival in emergency evacuations, through the combined insights from agent-based computer modeling, risk communication/decision research, and an advisory board of emergency responders. 

Recent highlights

8 December 2016

PUBLICATIONS

Sajid Siraj has had two papers accepted for publication:

  • “NS-2 Based Simulation Framework for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks”, Wireless Networks, Springer (ISSN:1022-0038)
  • “PRACB: A Novel Channel Bonding Algorithm for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks”, IEEE Access, IEEE (ISSN:2169-3536)

CONFERENCES

Wandi Bruine de Bruin chaired a tribute to Baruch Fischhoff at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference in Boston, which included Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Maya Bar-Hillel, Ruth Beyth-Marom, Lisa Schwartz, Steven Woloshin, and others. Wandi received her PhD while working with Baruch (see picture to the right). Video and photos of the event will be shared on the Centre for Decision Research website soon.

Wandi chaired a session on cognitive ageing at the Psychonomic Society conference in Boston, in which she presented a paper entitled "Choosing to be happy? Age differences in ‘maximizing’ decision strategies and experienced emotional well-being."

Wandi gave a presentation on "developing communications for ageing audiences" at the 11th Annual Pension Conference in London. She also gave a presentation on ageing and decision making at the University of Maastricht Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging, and Retirement (NETSPAR) conference on “Engaging pension plan participants: Challenges and insights.”

Yasmina Okan presented the poster 'Biasing and debiasing health decisions with bar graphs: Costs and benefits of graph literacy' (with Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Edward Cokely, and Antonio Maldonado) at the 37th Annual Conference of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making in Boston, US, in November.

At the same conference, Simon McNair presented: 'Age effects in moral judgment: Older adults are more deontological than younger adults' (Authors: Simon McNair, Yasmina Okan, Constantinos Hadjichristidis, Wändi Bruine de Bruin). A paper was also presented at the conference which was co-authored by Yasmina and Wandi (as well as Jonathan Parillo, Eric Stone, and Andrew Parker) -  'When context matters: The impact of different probability sizes and risk reductions on graphical display effects'.

OTHER/OUTREACH

Wandi gave a presentation on ageing and decision making at the Leicester Secular Society.

Two undergraduate students working with Barbara Summers and Bridgette Bewick (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences) have had their work presented at the 2016 Annual Symposium of the Society for the Study of Addiction. Gergana Genova (Undergraduate Research and Leadership Scholarship) and Luke Turner (Q-STEP placement) both did work on the concept of digital addiction and how students conceptualize problem online use. This work was also part of a presentation by Bridgette Bewick at the ESRC seminar series on this topic. Gergana’s poster was highly commended by the poster judges, which is a great achievement for a first year undergraduate.

  • Genova, G.P., Bewick, B.M., and Summers, B. Student Perceptions of Digital Addiction, SSA Annual Symposium 2016
  • Turner, L., Bewick, B.M., Summers, B, Bryant, L. Student Perceptions of Digital Addiction: Q Study, SSA Annual Symposium 2016

The Effects of Time Pressure on Managerial Decision Making

8 December 2016

Emeritus Professor and Centre for Decision Research member, John Maule, gave a presentation on the effects of time pressure on managerial decision making.

Conferences and blog posts

11 November 2016

Alan Pearman gave an invited paper at the European Road Infrastructure Congress held at the Armouries in Leeds, 18th – 20th October 2016.  His paper was entitled ‘Two hundred and forty-four years of decision research in Leeds: is our road infrastructure any the better?’.

Barbara Summers gave an invited talk entitled - “What’s my motivation?” - at the 3rd Motivation & Self-Control Symposium held at Cologne in October. The talk looked at the difficulties in understanding others’ motivations and their model of the world.

Wandi Bruine de Bruin gave an invited seminar on environmental communications at the University of Trieste, Department of Life Sciences, Trieste, Italy (see previous post for photo). She also gave an invited seminar on ageing and decision making at the University of Essex, Department of Psychology, Colchester, UK.

Wandi was an invited participant and discussant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Conference on Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics, Cleveland OH, US. 

Mirta Galesic and Wandi Bruine de Bruin wrote a blog post about their research on polling for the US election, which was published via the University of Southern California's The Evidence Base and was reposted on the Leeds University Business School Research and Innovation Blog.